Back in January, I declared my amusement at people proclaiming impending technology trend takeovers as inevitable and irresistible. Among other things, I had this to say (it’s a familiar phrase in Britain):

What a load of bollocks.

 
Today I was provided with another example (thanks Ralph):

What falling e-book sales tell us about technology in 2017

I encourage you to read that post, which seems to me to be right on the money. E-books, yesterday’s Next Big Thing, are now in sharp decline. The inevitable technology takeover turned out to be not quite so inevitable after all. Who could have guessed?

Here’s another quote from my January post:

Next time somebody tries to tell you something like, “The whole software industry is moving to the rental model, all software will be sold that way soon, there will be no avoiding it,” please refer them to paragraph two above.

 
Autodesk has bet the farm on not just one apparently inevitable technology trend, but two. If either rental-only software and cloud-based CAD/BIM/M&E fail to live up to expectations, Autodesk will be in a world of pain.

That’s quite a gamble, and Autodesk has already blown a billion bucks on what it probably thought was a sure thing. Anybody who thinks there’s such a thing as a sure thing in technology hasn’t been paying attention.

It always amuses me when people proclaim a rising technology as not just promising, but the way of the future that will inevitably take over. Anybody can see that’s the way things are heading, they say. No use fighting it. Don’t question the certainty of the forthcoming tech revolution, you Luddite! It’s a sea change, resistance is futile, get on board now or be swept away on the flood waters of progress.

What a load of bollocks.

What really surprises me is when people who are old enough to know better join in with this sort of thing. Those of us who have been around a while have seen many “inevitable” technological revolutions dry up and fizzle out, some more than once. It gets old.

Remember a few short years ago when touchscreens were going to be part of everybody’s desktop setup as ubiquitous as the mouse? I do, but I also remembered touchscreens on desktop computers failing in the 80s for the exact same ergonomic reasons they went nowhere this time around (thanks for the lesson, HP). That’s why none of the monitors I bought in the last few years have had touchscreens, and I’ve yet to see a single desktop touchscreen in active use.

Next off the rank is VR. Some of the people who were around when virtual reality failed the first time are somehow now convinced it’s now The Next Big Thing, despite the reasons it failed originally remaining stubbornly in place. No, in three years’ time you’re not going to be holding site meetings in your office wearing a silly pair of goggles and bumping into the coffee machine. Really, you’re not. It didn’t happen in 1990 and it won’t happen in 2020 either.

Here are a couple of things I enjoyed reading recently.

1. Music Content – Giant 200-CD ‘Mozart 225’ Box Set is a Surprisingly Hot Seller
2. Music Technology – Value of vinyl sales overtakes digital downloads in the UK

To celebrate, I went out and bought a gramophone, I mean, turntable. I’m happy to report that I still haven’t parted with a single cent for online music. That’s so  yesterday.

Next time somebody tries to tell you something like, “The whole software industry is moving to the rental model, all software will be sold that way soon, there will be no avoiding it,” please refer them to paragraph two above.